Can GPU prices never come down?

[Ashura]

With the 3090, the king of bad price to perf. GPU, selling well. Even the 6900XT to some extent.

 

And the 3080 selling for $900-$1000 or more, around the world.

It seems like there a lot of people who are willing to pay big bucks for a high end GPU.

 

Would this circumstance end up being an unintentional market testing?

 

Of course I assume sales would be relatively lower, but the margins would be higher than ever!

[ENTERPRISE]

The issues is most people will pay the extra to get what they want. Thus far we have had two solid generations of large price increases for GPU's, at least on the high end. It is clear so far that while people will complain about the price increase, they won't vote with their wallet and will spend the extra anyway.

 

I am one of them. Especially with NVIDIA. While AMD have improved their game with RDNA2, the AMD ecosystem is FAR behind that of Nvidia. So even though AMD offers a better price for performance ( RT not included ), I will still pay more for Nvidia generally speaking due to the overall better package.

 

In Summary, Top end GPU,s £1,500-£2000 is likely the new norm from Nvidia, AMD while gaining traction still has a ways to go in order to force Nvidia off the pricing high horse.

[Ashura]

Exactly.

 

Even I'm considering paying over the top for a  GPU.

 

I guess, 1500 for a flagship GPU would be the new normal, & I guess a $2000 flagship isn't too far away.

[mouacyk]

It can and it will.  There are just outstanding circumstances preventing the market from following MSRP's for a longer period of time than usual.  2080TI MSRP at $1200 and its performance equal 3070 at $500 shows that NVidia is willing to charge accordingly to cost of production.  

 

Unlike scalpers who care little for what/how you think of them, companies like NVidia and AMD do have a reputation to keep.  Once production can ramp up to meet demand, prices will normalize back to around MSRP.  Things are happening that should allow that to happen, sooner or later.

 

 I would resist feeding scalpers altogether, if value is a big deal.  Otherwise, they only get encouraged even more in good times.

[UltraMega]

Scalpers are an issue but mining is the real issue. I suspect bitcoin will drop if/when the pandemic ends but who knows. Bitcoin is in uncharted territory. 

Nvidia tried to make mining only cards by making cards that didnt have video outputs but that didn't work because miners factor the resell cost into their profitability. Essentially they're all renting these cards because the instant mining become unprofitable they will sell them for close to what they paid, if not more considering how bad things are now. 

[O1dschoo1]

They will as soon as mining crashes or nvidia starts selling mining cards

[UltraMega]

lol some people.

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by UltraMega

[Sir Beregond]

Hard to say really because in the current climate Nvidia/AMD aren't really setting the prices anymore.

[J7SC_Orion]

There are too many factors interlocking right now to even try to forecast mining in particular and GPU prices in general...including China's introduction of a digital currency, 'casino speculators' galore -  but also a real attempt by folks to hedge a bit against future inflation, given latest money supply growth figures. Then there's that trade war with a 25% tariff...the higher the base price, the higher this extra 'tax'. 

 

Also, it looks like NVIdia (and soon AMD ?) have successfully established an 'ueber-class' of GPUs which they can't produce fast enough to meet demand...they would be foolish from a profit-maximizing POV not to exploit it, as much as I don't personally like it  Add several confirmed news stories about hundreds of millions of dollars of Ampere being bought up right at the factory gates where they are manufactured and the plot thickens...that's before additional demand via Covid-19 factors impacting both the home and workstation markets, or the higher input prices for components of a GPU (and other electronics <> note the shortages of some bits these days)

 

Speaking of the workstation market, and this may sound a bit lunatic, for what you are getting in terms of performance, even 3090s are a great deal from the POV of a productivity purchase. I use my 2080 TIs and the 3090 for both work and play and know the prices of a workstation Quadro RTX. I wanted to add a 16 GB min VRAM GPU as I'm moving completely to 4K and was set to find a 6900 XT which I really like, but software support and also just the 4K performance drop-off steered me towards to 3090 24 GB VRAM, so a partial business purchase.

 

A final point which bugs me a bit is that the OC community (to which I fervently belong, including prior LN2 XOC) should look at itself as well in this pricing and availability context. The community made up of both responsible and less responsible folks. I know of several people who just order and/or pick up a 3090 air-cooled model, slap the KPE XOC 1000 W bios on it with all safeties removed for bench-marking - then return it to the store a week or so later if it wasn't a 'golden chip' in their opinion. The store then resells it as open-box (presumably with the old bios flashed back). Others go through various hard mods (shunting etc) and that's fine, I've done hardmods myself -  but it is a risk.

 

.I would never try to take the mods off if the card dies and return it to the vendor, but others do...vendors are not stupid and often catch the (former) mods, but in other cases they just replace the card. Ultimately, the RMA cost is added to next year's pricing by the vendors, again as a percentage, so the higher the price of the ueber models, the higher the RMA 'premium' will be. 

 

If mining slows down sharply, I do expect GPU prices to flatten if not sink a bit, but the other factors at play will continue to beset the markets for a while, IMO...

  

  

Edited February 12, 2021 by J7SC_Orion

[ENTERPRISE]

On 2/12/2021 at 8:17 PM, J7SC_Orion said:

There are too many factors interlocking right now to even try to forecast mining in particular and GPU prices in general...including China's introduction of a digital currency, 'casino speculators' galore -  but also a real attempt by folks to hedge a bit against future inflation, given latest money supply growth figures. Then there's that trade war with a 25% tariff...the higher the base price, the higher this extra 'tax'. 

 

Also, it looks like NVIdia (and soon AMD ?) have successfully established an 'ueber-class' of GPUs which they can't produce fast enough to meet demand...they would be foolish from a profit-maximizing POV not to exploit it, as much as I don't personally like it  Add several confirmed news stories about hundreds of millions of dollars of Ampere being bought up right at the factory gates where they are manufactured and the plot thickens...that's before additional demand via Covid-19 factors impacting both the home and workstation markets, or the higher input prices for components of a GPU (and other electronics <> note the shortages of some bits these days)

 

Speaking of the workstation market, and this may sound a bit lunatic, for what you are getting in terms of performance, even 3090s are a great deal from the POV of a productivity purchase. I use my 2080 TIs and the 3090 for both work and play and know the prices of a workstation Quadro RTX. I wanted to add a 16 GB min VRAM GPU as I'm moving completely to 4K and was set to find a 6900 XT which I really like, but software support and also just the 4K performance drop-off steered me towards to 3090 24 GB VRAM, so a partial business purchase.

 

A final point which bugs me a bit is that the OC community (to which I fervently belong, including prior LN2 XOC) should look at itself as well in this pricing and availability context. The community made up of both responsible and less responsible folks. I know of several people who just order and/or pick up a 3090 air-cooled model, slap the KPE XOC 1000 W bios on it with all safeties removed for bench-marking - then return it to the store a week or so later if it wasn't a 'golden chip' in their opinion. The store then resells it as open-box (presumably with the old bios flashed back). Others go through various hard mods (shunting etc) and that's fine, I've done hardmods myself -  but it is a risk.

 

.I would never try to take the mods off if the card dies and return it to the vendor, but others do...vendors are not stupid and often catch the (former) mods, but in other cases they just replace the card. Ultimately, the RMA cost is added to next year's pricing by the vendors, again as a percentage, so the higher the price of the ueber models, the higher the RMA 'premium' will be. 

 

If mining slows down sharply, I do expect GPU prices to flatten if not sink a bit, but the other factors at play will continue to beset the markets for a while, IMO...

  

  

Indeed an accurate summary. I myself had to consider my GPU purchase for both work and play. However Nvidia really screwed the pooch this gen by supplying a high end card "3080" with an unsatisfactory amount of Vram, arguably in both gaming and productivity terms, depending on what you are running.

 

I was considering the 6800/6900XT as AMD correctly this generation increased the VRAM to a healthy 16Gb and performance wise not bad at all....BUT their productivity and arguably gaming ecosystem is nowhere near Nvidia.

 

This unfortunately semi forced my hand to go with the 3090 which is at the completely opposite end of the spectrum with too much VRAM. Of course a good chunk of the cost of that GPU is in the VRAM. Why they decided to bust into Titan territory I will never know. It forces consumers who want a decent GPU worthy of lasting possibly a couple of gens down a money trap

 

I digress, I know nobody forced me at gun point to buy a new GPU but for those in the market are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

 

AMD- Nice GPU Perf, Sensible VRAM - Not a great ecosystem - First gen RT - Questionable bandwidth - Better pricing 

= Gaming up to 4K , limited productivity......No go

 

 

Nvidia - Nice GPU Perf, Mental VRAM (Increases price) - Great ecosystem 2nd Gen RT- Very expensive.

= Gaming up to 4k with better perf than AMD, better productivity portfolio....Take all my money, like literally there is none left lol.

[Sir Beregond]

Is VRAM really even that expensive? I'd love to see actual material costs.

[ENTERPRISE]

9 hours ago, Sir Beregond said:

Is VRAM really even that expensive? I'd love to see actual material costs.

Material cost looking around , approx $120-150. So as far as material costs, not much. However once you consider the markup and the marketing position (Only mainstream gaming GPU with that count of memory) that original $120-150 rockets. 

[J7SC_Orion]

6 hours ago, ENTERPRISE said:

Material cost looking around , approx $120-150. So as far as material costs, not much. However once you consider the markup and the marketing position (Only mainstream gaming GPU with that count of memory) that original $120-150 rockets. 

  

AFAIK, GDDR6X still has only one supplier (= pricey) and also needs additional quality control step$

[ENTERPRISE]

36 minutes ago, J7SC_Orion said:

  

AFAIK, GDDR6X still has only one supplier (= pricey) and also needs additional quality control step$

Yeah that does not help either, Micron has the monopoly on that.

[Paradigm Gaming]

What's going on in the market right now is indicative as to why boards like EHW are needed.

 

Gamers and enthusiasts have always been market fair to gamers and enthusiasts.  It's almost like a brotherhood or a family where not only do we wish to sell our goods and to be fair, but we also harbor this innate desire to know the outcome of how our products and equipment ended up serving our buyers.

 

That's just something you can't get with Amazon or eBay or any retailer really.  I don't know how many times I've sold a high end GPU or a PC case where I didn't follow with "send me a pic of your new rig" or something.

 

I, for one, look forward to the new EHW Marketplace and returning to the way it used to be.  By enthusiasts for enthusiasts