[Official] Stocks/Crypto/Investing thread

[UltraMega]

33 minutes ago, ENTERPRISE said:

On another note. I just signed up with eToro. As per the conversation with @UltraMegaI have taken a look at the VGT index, interesting stuff. I will likely do some actual investing once I have sorted my job issue out, first things are first lol. I will need to do some reading as per the links in the OP and familiarise myself with the risks etc. While it is all exciting, these are not things you jump into without looking.

EToro is just for crypto right? 

 

With something like VGT the risk is basically pretty low. I think a stock like thet would only go down significantly if the entire economy tanked, which is always a risk, though as I understand it that's not going to happen anytime soon because the federal reserve is locked into a codependent relationship with the stock market now where the fed basically adjusts constantly to keep stocks happy. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by UltraMega

[Snakecharmed]

2 hours ago, UltraMega said:

EToro is just for crypto right?

 

In the US. They have a more complete platform in the UK that includes stocks, ETFs, commodities, and forex. Based on some quick reading about their UK platform, I don't recommend their copy trading features because most people are idiots and you don't want to copy their portfolios, and it provides a potentially detrimental shortcut to performing your own research.

 

Also, having looked through the previous posts in the thread, in the spirit of trying to help you optimize your portfolio, you have more ticker symbols than what I'd feel comfortable tracking. 28 symbols is probably double or maybe even triple the amount of what most people would consider manageable, and a lot of those single-share stocks you have are serving as clutter rather than diversification. You're spreading yourself too thin at the bottom end to the point where, for example, even if cruise lines have an exceptionally good day, you've still gained less than $10. However, you're also too top-heavy with MSFT to the point where your portfolio basically goes in whatever direction Microsoft takes it.

Edited September 6, 2021 by Snakecharmed

[J_RiZz]

2 hours ago, UltraMega said:

EToro is just for crypto right? 

 

With something like VGT the risk is basically pretty low. I think a stock like thet would only go down significantly if the entire economy tanked, which is always a risk, though as I understand it that's not going to happen anytime soon because the federal reserve is locked into a codependent relationship with the stock market now where the fed basically adjusts constantly to keep stocks happy. 

I agree, if you're just looking for a fund to invest in and not individual stock picking, you really can't go wrong with an ETF. Even QQQ wouldn't be bad for low risk and decent anuualized returns. Yeah it's growth, but even if the Fed starts tapering in November I really cant see a growth/tech ETF correcting more than 15% in the worst case scenario. Just look how much the VIX came down in the past 12 months. I do feel like the market as a whole may have a correction sometime this month, but even then I can't see that  being more than 5%.

[UltraMega]

1 hour ago, Snakecharmed said:

 

In the US. They have a more complete platform in the UK that includes stocks, ETFs, commodities, and forex. Based on some quick reading about their UK platform, I don't recommend their copy trading features because most people are idiots and you don't want to copy their portfolios, and it provides a potentially detrimental shortcut to performing your own research.

 

Also, having looked through the previous posts in the thread, in the spirit of trying to help you optimize your portfolio, you have more ticker symbols than what I'd feel comfortable tracking. 28 symbols is probably double or maybe even triple the amount of what most people would consider manageable, and a lot of those single-share stocks you have are serving as clutter rather than diversification. You're spreading yourself too thin at the bottom end to the point where, for example, even if cruise lines have an exceptionally good day, you've still gained less than $10. However, you're also too top-heavy with MSFT to the point where your portfolio basically goes in whatever direction Microsoft takes it.

The single share stocks I have are not so much for diversification but rather just there for it to be easier for me to keep an eye on. They're mostly stocks I had more of but sold all but one of just so I can see them when I check my stocks. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by UltraMega

[pio]

12 hours ago, Avacado said:

You are grossly over-estimating profitability, things have changed  since the last hardfork (ETH). Your 6 580s would net you 13$ day if you're lucky and the gas fees will eat you alive when you try to sell. Currently my 4 2080Tis make about 0.15 ETH per month @ 240 Mh/s when I mine. It's not really worth it anymore to mine ETH at least. You might want to do some more research before pulling the trigger on that 10k "investment". You'd be better off just buying the crypto. Honestly, please don't jump in the game at this point.

 

 

Oh I wasn't planning on just using my 580's.  I was going to keep my eyes peeled on fleabay for some 5700's or 6700's to use, approximately 10-12 of them, inflated pricing on GPU's right now or not.

Yes, I'm over-estimating since I'm using "today's" pricing, knowing full well the value is inflated right now.  I figured since I'm spending crypto to buy the gear, I just need to earn that same amount of crypto back, regardless of the value of it.  If I understand it correctly, I'd have the crypto back in 6-8 months, and after that it'd be profit.

Well.....that was the goal anyway lol.

Edited September 6, 2021 by pioneerisloud

[Snakecharmed]

3 hours ago, UltraMega said:

The single share stocks I have are not so much for diversification but rather just there for it to be easier for me to keep an eye on. They're mostly stocks I had more of but sold all but one of just so I can see them when I check my stocks. 

I see, that makes a little more sense. With few exceptions, once I sell a position, I'm not looking back, so I don't even want to watch them anymore, much less own any part of them. I've made enough bad purchases in the past that were usually attempts at swing trades for a quick buck, and almost all of them backfired on me.

 

In four years, I've only ever reopened positions three times, all with the intent of long-term capital gains because I knew I screwed up when I sold them the first time: NVDA, DXCM, and SHOP. Even between those three though, I was on the fence with continuing to hold DXCM until their big spike at the end of July, but I also recognize them for what they are: a market leader in their sector with a solid business model and reliable revenue stream.

 

My biggest regret (aside from ever selling SHOP in the first place because my original cost basis per share was under $100) was not buying back into SHOP right after the pandemic cratered the market in 2020 and still holding onto garbage like IBIO thinking that they could be a lottery ticket for the vaccine. That bad gamble spooked me off of far better COVID plays last summer like MRNA when it was still under $100 a share, which I even recommended to someone else.

 

Meanwhile, SHOP was on my watch list to buy back into in late-2019 and early-2020, and if I wasn't screwing around with penny stocks, I could have gotten back in at under $500 a share instead of the $992 at which I did eventually buy back in. At least I was smart enough to pick up NVDA for the second time and buy more AMZN during that period.

 

Stocks that were supposed to be short-term plays like airlines and cruises that ended up getting extended into long-term holds due to the continuing effects of the pandemic were a complete waste of time. I've held DAL for a year and a half now for a pathetic 8.4% return and it's going to be the first thing I sell when I decide on what my next purchase is going to be. Unless your timing is perfect and prescient to pull off a day or swing trade, putting that money into the less exciting FAANG+M over the same period of time would have been a far better move.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Snakecharmed

[UltraMega]

5 hours ago, Snakecharmed said:

I see, that makes a little more sense. With few exceptions, once I sell a position, I'm not looking back, so I don't even want to watch them anymore, much less own any part of them. I've made enough bad purchases in the past that were usually attempts at swing trades for a quick buck, and almost all of them backfired on me.

 

In four years, I've only ever reopened positions three times, all with the intent of long-term capital gains because I knew I screwed up when I sold them the first time: NVDA, DXCM, and SHOP. Even between those three though, I was on the fence with continuing to hold DXCM until their big spike at the end of July, but I also recognize them for what they are: a market leader in their sector with a solid business model and reliable revenue stream.

 

My biggest regret (aside from ever selling SHOP in the first place because my original cost basis per share was under $100) was not buying back into SHOP right after the pandemic cratered the market in 2020 and still holding onto garbage like IBIO thinking that they could be a lottery ticket for the vaccine. That bad gamble spooked me off of far better COVID plays last summer like MRNA when it was still under $100 a share, which I even recommended to someone else.

 

Meanwhile, SHOP was on my watch list to buy back into in late-2019 and early-2020, and if I wasn't screwing around with penny stocks, I could have gotten back in at under $500 a share instead of the $992 at which I did eventually buy back in. At least I was smart enough to pick up NVDA for the second time and buy more AMZN during that period.

 

Stocks that were supposed to be short-term plays like airlines and cruises that ended up getting extended into long-term holds due to the continuing effects of the pandemic were a complete waste of time. I've held DAL for a year and a half now for a pathetic 8.4% return and it's going to be the first thing I sell when I decide on what my next purchase is going to be. Unless your timing is perfect and prescient to pull off a day or swing trade, putting that money into the less exciting FAANG+M over the same period of time would have been a far better move.

Yea it's been an interesting time to get into stock for sure. I tried some of the sort of popular pandemic stock ideas like cruise lines, never got into airlines, but that was pretty short lived for me. As you mentioned with the pandemic stretching out more and more it didn't seem like the simple bet it did in the beginning. Now, if I have any pandemic stocks they're still in the tech sector. TSM, for example, I probably wouldn't have invested in if the chip shortages hadn't put them in a position to have more business than they can take. 

I was lucky enough to have some Moderna stock (MRNA) and I sold it just before it started dipping at $480 with a stop limit. I only had a few shares, but with the rise it had as the delta variant spread was pretty great. 

 

I think I am going to put another ~4-5K or so into my stock account soon and put it all in one stock that I think can move up quickly, and keep a stop limit on it. I'd like to have one stock that I consider a more active/risky bet, but just one so that it's real easy to keep track of and manage. 

 

Long term though I think AI is going to be a big winner. My portfolio doesn't have a lot of AI stuff going on with it right now but long term that's probably where I will shift a lot of my focus. 

[UltraMega]

5 hours ago, pioneerisloud said:

Oh I wasn't planning on just using my 580's.  I was going to keep my eyes peeled on fleabay for some 5700's or 6700's to use, approximately 10-12 of them, inflated pricing on GPU's right now or not.

Yes, I'm over-estimating since I'm using "today's" pricing, knowing full well the value is inflated right now.  I figured since I'm spending crypto to buy the gear, I just need to earn that same amount of crypto back, regardless of the value of it.  If I understand it correctly, I'd have the crypto back in 6-8 months, and after that it'd be profit.

Well.....that was the goal anyway lol.

If I understand it correctly, it looks like 12 RX6700s would get you about $45 per day, but that's only if the value Ethereum stays at least as high as it is now.

Ecoin is crazy though, 5 years from now it could be worth ten times as much and we will all be kicking ourselves for not buying more, or it could lose most of it's value really fast after being outlawed or something unpredictable happens. 

Assuming ecoins stay at about the same value, I think u'd be better off with stocks but it might not be a huge difference either way. Maybe you could average a little more per day with the same investment in stocks, but it might only be 25% more or so. But with that said, it's a lot easier to grow your stock account because when your stocks go up in value, they're already stocks. When you make money mining, you will have to keep buying more GPUs and expanding your mining operation to see rising growth the way you would with stocks. Basically it's the difference between making percentage over time and making a fixed amount each day. 

[Andrew]

Someone sold 17 million ADA a few hours ago making the price drop 7%. Whoever it was, they got an absolute ton of money. They sold at around $3 giving them ~$51,000,000.

[UltraMega]

3 hours ago, Andrew said:

Someone sold 17 million ADA a few hours ago making the price drop 7%. Whoever it was, they got an absolute ton of money. They sold at around $3 giving them ~$51,000,000.

Looks like they set some things in motion. 

[Andrew]

59 minutes ago, UltraMega said:

Looks like they set some things in motion. 

Yeah, that's normal. "Oh no, it dropped 7% in 1 hour, better sell" I do think it's going to go down a bit more before picking up again.

[Andrew]

I've just had a look at some crypto prices after seeing a bunch of smug people saying "ha, see, we told you it's going to crash and you're going to lose everything."

 

Here's the ones I owned over the last month:

And the last 12 months:

 

[UltraMega]

8 minutes ago, Andrew said:

I've just had a look at some crypto prices after seeing a bunch of smug people saying "ha, see, we told you it's going to crash and you're going to lose everything."

 

Here's the ones I owned over the last month:

And the last 12 months:

 

Damn that's pretty nuts. What made you decide to buy ADA initially? 

 

I'm curious to know more about anyone's general strategy with buying crypto. Do you just buy when you see a dip in something or did you get in really early? Is it just buy low sell high? It's hard for me to wrap my head around the investing strategy for crypto since there's nothing tangible to it. 

Edited September 7, 2021 by UltraMega

[Andrew]

10 minutes ago, UltraMega said:

Damn that's pretty nuts. What made you decide to buy ADA initially? 

 

I'm curious to know more about anyone's general strategy with buying crypto. Do you just buy when you see a dip in something or did you get in really early? Is it just buy low sell high? It's hard for me to wrap my head around the investing strategy for crypto since there's nothing tangible to it. 

My post is slightly misleading. I did only buy them a few months ago It's just that the time scale that Coinbase does on that page is 1h, 24h, 1w, 1m, 1y. I bought these in March and just sold them today while still up. I'm going to buy back in once this all calms down a bit.

 

I bought ADA because I just happened to come across back when Doge started going crazy a few months ago and I saw people mention ADA as an alternative. I looked into it seemed like a promising project with actual goals. The fact that it gets used in those "send x amount of ADA and we will send you double" scams, which I can't believe people still fall for, that's like a Runescape scam from 2002 also showed me that people are taking it seriously.

 

I also tend to avoid "meme" cryptos or any crypto that has doge/shiba, baby, elon, mars, moon, safe, rocket or anything to do with space in the name or have been "endorsed" by celebrities because those have always been scam coins that end up getting rug pulled.

 

As far as buying it goes, I just DCA. It's not the most efficient way to do it, but it's the safest. Also not selling when you have a paper loss. You might have put in $100 and it's now at $80, but it's not an actual loss until you sell.

[UltraMega]

26 minutes ago, Andrew said:

My post is slightly misleading. I did only buy them a few months ago It's just that the time scale that Coinbase does on that page is 1h, 24h, 1w, 1m, 1y. I bought these in March and just sold them today while still up. I'm going to buy back in once this all calms down a bit.

 

I bought ADA because I just happened to come across back when Doge started going crazy a few months ago and I saw people mention ADA as an alternative. I looked into it seemed like a promising project with actual goals. The fact that it gets used in those "send x amount of ADA and we will send you double" scams, which I can't believe people still fall for, that's like a Runescape scam from 2002 also showed me that people are taking it seriously.

 

I also tend to avoid "meme" cryptos or any crypto that has doge/shiba, baby, elon, mars, moon, safe, rocket or anything to do with space in the name or have been "endorsed" by celebrities because those have always been scam coins that end up getting rug pulled.

 

As far as buying it goes, I just DCA. It's not the most efficient way to do it, but it's the safest. Also not selling when you have a paper loss. You might have put in $100 and it's now at $80, but it's not an actual loss until you sell.

What's DCA? 

[Andrew]

1 minute ago, UltraMega said:

What's DCA? 

"Dollar cost averaging"

If you want to put in (for example) $1000, you don't put all of it in at once, instead, you put in £100 a week until you've invested $1000 total. When the markets are going up or short term, this isn't very effective, and you'll most likely end up not making as much as you wanted to. But long term, it's a safe way to make the most amount of money. If done right, you'll end up with more of that cryptocurrency over time than if you just bought $1000 worth.

[ENTERPRISE]

Oh man, some juicy info so far. At some point I am looking forward to getting into this !

[Andrew]

I just found out the stocks app for macOS can do crypto as well, so that's neat.

 

[pio]

Soooooo

 

I'm seeing RX 5700XT's on the local facebook marketplace for like $500.  That's peanuts compared to the $1100 ish they seem to go for (buy it now) on ebay.

I think next time my crypto portfolio is up where I want it to be, I'm cashing out and building a mining rig or two.  Got my eyes on a couple local GPU's to buy to get it started, but nothing crazy till my portfolio is a little better again.  Scored one hell of a deal on my current 5700XT, but its a reference card.....yeah not mining on that anyway.

 

I know, I know, its not "smart".  Same thing was said 4 years ago when I bought 24 RX 580's, and those made their money back and then some (and then I lost it all lol).  I only have 4 cards left at the moment, and 580's are doing poorly on mining now.  But shoot, $500 5700XT's, those should at least see ROI by the one year mark or so (possibly as soon as 2-3 months).  I'm happy enough with that if that means I'm gaining profit after that point.  Afterall, anything past $2500 is "the house's money" for me at this point since that's all I put in originally.

[Avacado]

5 hours ago, pioneerisloud said:

Soooooo

 

I'm seeing RX 5700XT's on the local facebook marketplace for like $500.  That's peanuts compared to the $1100 ish they seem to go for (buy it now) on ebay.

I think next time my crypto portfolio is up where I want it to be, I'm cashing out and building a mining rig or two.  Got my eyes on a couple local GPU's to buy to get it started, but nothing crazy till my portfolio is a little better again.  Scored one hell of a deal on my current 5700XT, but its a reference card.....yeah not mining on that anyway.

 

I know, I know, its not "smart".  Same thing was said 4 years ago when I bought 24 RX 580's, and those made their money back and then some (and then I lost it all lol).  I only have 4 cards left at the moment, and 580's are doing poorly on mining now.  But shoot, $500 5700XT's, those should at least see ROI by the one year mark or so (possibly as soon as 2-3 months).  I'm happy enough with that if that means I'm gaining profit after that point.  Afterall, anything past $2500 is "the house's money" for me at this point since that's all I put in originally.

Make your ROI back in a year (2-3 Months), ok, mining what exactly? I really am trying to protect you here, you have said a lot about mining rigs and I know you know about that, but have said nothing about your crypto of choice. ETH mining is basically dead, so what do you plan on mining that will get you your money back?

 

This is not like a few years back, where you were crazy because the price dropped, it has changed and many of the major cryptos are moving away from Pow to PoS. It is no longer about being crazy because i'm mining for no profit, it's crazy because mining is being killed and to invest in it now seems like an unwise decision. But hey, you've been properly counseled. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Avacado

[Andrew]

6 hours ago, pioneerisloud said:

Soooooo

 

I'm seeing RX 5700XT's on the local facebook marketplace for like $500.  That's peanuts compared to the $1100 ish they seem to go for (buy it now) on ebay.

I think next time my crypto portfolio is up where I want it to be, I'm cashing out and building a mining rig or two.  Got my eyes on a couple local GPU's to buy to get it started, but nothing crazy till my portfolio is a little better again.  Scored one hell of a deal on my current 5700XT, but its a reference card.....yeah not mining on that anyway.

 

I know, I know, its not "smart".  Same thing was said 4 years ago when I bought 24 RX 580's, and those made their money back and then some (and then I lost it all lol).  I only have 4 cards left at the moment, and 580's are doing poorly on mining now.  But shoot, $500 5700XT's, those should at least see ROI by the one year mark or so (possibly as soon as 2-3 months).  I'm happy enough with that if that means I'm gaining profit after that point.  Afterall, anything past $2500 is "the house's money" for me at this point since that's all I put in originally.

IIRC the most profitable way to mine right now is with the Nicehash bitcoin miner. It mines ETH and converts it to BTC. It's not very profitable unless you have a few mining rigs, but at that point you might as well just get a few ASIC miners.

 

Personally, I would mine but electricity costs for me are higher than the amount of money I'd get back so I just don't.

[pio]

2 hours ago, Avacado said:

Make your ROI back in a year (2-3 Months), ok, mining what exactly? I really am trying to protect you here, you have said a lot about mining rigs and I know you know about that, but have said nothing about your crypto of choice. ETH mining is basically dead, so what do you plan on mining that will get you your money back?

 

This is not like a few years back, where you were crazy because the price dropped, it has changed and many of the major cryptos are moving away from Pow to PoS. It is no longer about being crazy because i'm mining for no profit, it's crazy because mining is being killed and to invest in it now seems like an unwise decision. But hey, you've been properly counseled. 

Well I mean ETH for now until its actually dead.  Nicehash in the downtime, and it seems that Raven is profitable still (just not as much as ETH still right now at this moment).  I figured there's always a coin out there.  Power isn't too expensive here at 10c/kwh.  Figured why not again, and on top of it all I get to play with the gear which is the exciting part.  I mean what are all the bigger mining setups going to do with all of their cards?  I doubt they're going to just quit, they'd move to a different coin.  Or at least that's what I'd do if I had that much invested like some of the bigger farms I've seen pictures of.

I just figured since I had crypto, I could try to spend what little I had to make some more like I did 4 years ago.  That was all.  I'm still seeing huge buy orders of GPU's on ebay, so somebody is still buying mass amounts of GPU's at a time.  I doubt they're all scalpers lol.  I could try to learn day trading crypto, but that just gives me a headache lol.  I'd rather just accumulate some, trade them for the coin I want to hold, and just sit on it for a few more years  (at most).

I know its sketchy to do, and by no means am I advising anybody to do it.  I got in "late" last time too (and the time before that).  But I'm playing the long game (or really trying to lol), and just sitting on it isn't going to do it.  I didn't accumulate enough even if BTC hits $1m I couldn't put a good downpayment on a home.  I dunno, like I've said......just me putting my ideas out there I guess.  I mean even if I get the same amount of crypto back that I put out to build it in ~1 year, the value of that crypto would still have gone up in that year (guessing anyway).  And after that point it'd be profit.  The goal isn't to make more cash in hand today.  Its to accumulate more coins that I'm speculating will still be worth more in the future, so I'll have a decent bit to help out with something big like a house down payment or a lambo (lol).

 

  

1 hour ago, Andrew said:

IIRC the most profitable way to mine right now is with the Nicehash bitcoin miner. It mines ETH and converts it to BTC. It's not very profitable unless you have a few mining rigs, but at that point you might as well just get a few ASIC miners.

 

Personally, I would mine but electricity costs for me are higher than the amount of money I'd get back so I just don't.

See, and I did actually fire up Nicehash on my 3 spare RX 580's now that I upgraded my main rig.  They're making almost $4 / day, like $3.89 or something.  I mean its not much, but I imagine 5 or 6 5700XT's would do more than that by a large amount.

Edited September 9, 2021 by pioneerisloud

[Andrew]

I'm actually still annoyed about that one time I spent like a week mining bitcoin, I managed to get 0.74. At the time, it was basically worthless and I ended up spending more in electricity anyway so I didn't save the wallet. I have absolutely no way of getting it back. Right now, that is a lot of money just gone forever.

 

[BWG]

It's really high risk to start right now, but altcoins will still be profitable to mine, at the least.

 

Worst case is roi takes longer. 

[tenchimuyo93]