[Official] Stocks/Crypto/Investing thread

[UltraMega]

On 06/09/2021 at 12:27, J_RiZz said:

I do feel like the market as a whole may have a correction sometime this month, but even then I can't see that  being more than 5%.

Looks like you we're right about that, but probably not for all of the same reasons you would have guessed at the time. 
 

 

[J_RiZz]

2 hours ago, UltraMega said:

Looks like you we're right about that, but probably not for all of the same reasons you would have guessed at the time. 
 

 

Lol, well thanks for quoting me in this. September is seasonally a bad month for stocks but damn who would've known about the Evergrande thing.  Also got the Fed meeting on Tuesday.

 

Was hard to look at my portfolio today but I spent the day selling put credit spreads that expire this week to offset some of the loss.

 Hopefully that works out for me

 

 

 

 

[UltraMega]

Looks like it was pretty short lived. After this morning I've gotten a out 70% of the recent losses back. 

[Andrew]

Why sell instead of just holding until it goes back to at least what you paid? That's what I did with my crypto and I sold all of it while still up about 50%. on Sunday.

[UltraMega]

56 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Why sell instead of just holding until it goes back to at least what you paid? That's what I did with my crypto and I sold all of it while still up about 50%. on Sunday.

I thought about selling; I think there was a good amount of uncertainty on Monday about the situation and it could have easily been a two or three day event instead of just a one day event. Things could still be a bit rocky going forward. 

 

Ideally though, stop limits are for this kind of situation exactly and anyone who had some good stop limits setup before Monday would have had their stock sell before it went down much and then they would want to buy back in at the end of the day or the next day to just skip over the losses. 

 

I have been lazy about setting up stop limits and I'm kicking myself a little about it now haha. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by UltraMega

[UltraMega]

Now I'm within $20 of where I was before this all started. Man, would have been a good time to buy the dip for sure but I didn't take any action on it. 

[UltraMega]

Looks like things have recovered from the recent dip, or really two dips. I'm not a little about where I was before the recent dips started and I never sold or anything. 

[Snakecharmed]

All I can say is that for long-term success, the wisest thing to do is to keep your eye on the big picture and not worry about what happens in time periods of less than a year. When I first started, my motivation was being disgruntled with my salary and my strategy was to catch a few waves, but I realized it's easier and more predictable to buy shares of something you believe in (with an appropriate amount of research and analysis) and leave it alone. I panicked or got impatient way too much in my first couple of years of investing and it cost me because I was measuring success over weeks instead of thinking about what the money that I don't need anytime soon will look like in 10+ years. I got needlessly impatient with both AMD and NFLX this way and sold both for a small loss, which is honestly a pretty damn difficult dubious achievement. These days, I still look at my portfolio daily, but I don't worry anymore if the market drops 5-10% over a couple of days like it did last month.

 

I want to say that every attempt I've made at a swing trade has failed. The only time I recall having marginal success with short-term trading was more of a trend trade without the fundamentals. I bet on my own company at the time following publicly announced news of a merger that would close in the coming months at a target price that wasn't reached yet. Even then, that was a painful ride because both halves of that merger were clown car operations and I sold well before our merger date because the price action was typically a long and slow downward trajectory followed by quick spikes that lasted no more than a couple of days before slowly trending down again. All that drama for a measly gain of $935.

 

Now that I have a much better and higher paying job, instead of rolling the dice on meme stocks, my only goal for my portfolio is to outperform the market, especially Nasdaq, which it's done every year since I started a few years ago.

 

Other than exceed the rate at which I typically dollar cost average into my Roth IRA by this point in the calendar year and buy some SHOP during the recent dip, I dumped the expected end-of-term interest savings from what would be my second 2021 mortgage refinance into GOOGL. I've now officially directly owned all of FAANG+M at some point and still own all except FB and NFLX.

 

Then, even though I haven't been thrilled about the recent uptick in mortgage interest rates, I decided to proceed with the second refinance anyway for a double double-dip. I don't usually directly associate my allocations with certain life events since it's all really just one big fungible pile of assets, but in this case, I did in order to directly see what my end-of-term interest savings turns into years down the road.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Snakecharmed

[Andrew]

lol the price of BTC on Binance US dropped from $66,500 to $8,000 instantly for a few minutes earlier. Turns out someone put in a sell order for $35M worth of BTC and it caused the huge drop. If anyone was lucky enough to get some before they corrected it again, they would have near enough instantly made 710% gains.

[BWG]

3 minutes ago, Andrew said:

lol the price of BTC on Binance US dropped from $66,500 to $8,000 instantly for a few minutes earlier. Turns out someone put in a sell order for $35M worth of BTC and it caused the huge drop. If anyone was lucky enough to get some before they corrected it again, they would have near enough instantly made 710% gains.

 

That's not really how it works. The Seller sold at market price, so while some sold very low for those with buy orders put in low just for this dumb move by the seller, you couldn't buy the coins that low if no sale orders were open at that price, hence it quickly returns to around the prior price.

[BWG]

Let me make what I said more clear. Unless you're like me, and have a constant buy order in at a low price, which in my case is $1,000 to buy BTC at a market price of $10,000, then you won't ever snag those under-market coins and insta-gain.

[UltraMega]

Looks like Intel stock is on sale today: https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/intel-reports-impressive-third-quarter-2021-financial-results.html

 

Looks like their down 11% on earnings report at the moment. 

[ENTERPRISE]

Will be getting into this game fairly soon. I keep reading the useful comments/insights

[Alex]

I still have around 0% return given my losses/gains lol. I did the dumb and bought $BB when it was too high and that's really skewing my portfolio (which is only like $700 total anyway). The stocks I really didn't think would do well have done well... such is life.

[UltraMega]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

I still have around 0% return given my losses/gains lol. I did the dumb and bought $BB when it was too high and that's really skewing my portfolio (which is only like $700 total anyway). The stocks I really didn't think would do well have done well... such is life.

That's cool tho, once you get into the game you start learning a lot even if it's just from watching the numbers move around. No one wins at it all the time but over time hopefully you will win most of the time.

[Avacado]

2 minutes ago, UltraMega said:

 No one wins at it all the time but over time hopefully you will win most of the time.

 

[UltraMega]

Just a little success story; last week or two have been pretty good in general for most stocks, and I've definitely benefited. I also invested in a company called SOFI a few months back when they seems to have really dipped in a way seemed temporary and since then that stock has gone up a lot. Just between Friday and today I'm up about $700. 

[UltraMega]

Another great day... This last week or so has is looking like a good rally. Hope it doesn't swing back too hard. 

[Andrew]

I predict a huge crash in SHIB soon. Back in Dec/Jan, someone dumped $8,000 into it, that much SHIB is now worth $8,000,000,000 and the wallet that has all of that SHIB in recently got moved into another wallet or something. I think the owner is looking for an exchange that will buy the most amount that they can from them.

 

If that does happen, I predict SHIB will crash hard and never recover.

[pio]

On 03/11/2021 at 14:35, Andrew said:

I predict a huge crash in SHIB soon. Back in Dec/Jan, someone dumped $8,000 into it, that much SHIB is now worth $8,000,000,000 and the wallet that has all of that SHIB in recently got moved into another wallet or something. I think the owner is looking for an exchange that will buy the most amount that they can from them.

 

If that does happen, I predict SHIB will crash hard and never recover.

Don't say that, SHIB has treated me pretty well the last few months. -_-  Gonna keep HODL'ing it, I only put a little in and it was already crypto anyway.    Was hoping it'd hit a penny, if it did I could retire off it entirely at 35 lol.  Big dreams.

[UltraMega]

All these tech stocks and Ford has been one of my biggest winner lately. More than doubled in the last year (was at a low point) and has really started moving over the last month. 

[UltraMega]

I was just taking about Microsoft stock with pio last night and this morning I came across this; https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/it-s-crystal-clear-why-microsoft-is-no-1-again/ar-AAQlZtJ?ocid=mmx&PC=EMMX01&PC=EMMX01

[Andrew]

3 hours ago, pioneerisloud said:

Don't say that, SHIB has treated me pretty well the last few months. -_-  Gonna keep HODL'ing it, I only put a little in and it was already crypto anyway.    Was hoping it'd hit a penny, if it did I could retire off it entirely at 35 lol.  Big dreams.

It's never going to reach a penny, even if my prediction is wrong. The math just isn't there, for SHIB to have the same marketcap as Bitcoin, 1 SHIB = $0.002. The marketcap of SHIB would have to reach $5.6T or 187 times more than it is now.

[Snakecharmed]

14 hours ago, pioneerisloud said:

Don't say that, SHIB has treated me pretty well the last few months. -_-  Gonna keep HODL'ing it, I only put a little in and it was already crypto anyway.    Was hoping it'd hit a penny, if it did I could retire off it entirely at 35 lol.  Big dreams.

 

I have a paltry amount of crypto in a wallet but it's increased 6X since I first opened it. The problem is that I only put about $20 worth of Bitcoin in there. I feel like I could take a shotgun approach to crypto though. Not enough to hurt losing it all, but far better odds of getting something meaningful by spreading $100-1000 each into a few different cryptocurrencies versus playing the lottery.

 

It's all just a hindsight daydreaming exercise though, not too different from daydreaming about winning the lottery. If I had tossed even $10 in SHIB at the beginning of the year, never mind the fact that I didn't even know it existed then, I would be set for a couple of lifetimes if I could find a way to liquidate the gains as well as have the guts to hold the entire time.

 

I'm content with my plans to retire before 50, which is still way far ahead of most people. My problem, which I still have a few years to figure out, is how and whether I plan to change my investment strategy when I reach that magic number for my total assets. I got into stock investing in 2017 with a hyper-aggressive growth strategy because I was upset with my salary and not getting a raise at my job at the time, as well as not investing my extra money beyond the Roth IRA annual limit back when I opened one well over a decade ago. If I did, I could be retired right now.

 

I think back to when a coworker from my first job introduced me to opening a Roth IRA. He's about my age and told me then he planned to retire at 40. I didn't completely believe him then. Now I realize he easily could have pulled it off and I should reach out to him in the coming years to see if he did. I now make over 50% more per year with my current job than I did at the one I was unhappy with in 2017 and my aggressive "catch-up" strategy has worked so well that I don't want to change anything now, even though I know the last several years have been nothing like the broader history of the stock market.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Snakecharmed

[UltraMega]

19 minutes ago, Snakecharmed said:

 

I have a paltry amount of crypto in a wallet but it's increased 6X since I first opened it. The problem is that I only put about $20 worth of Bitcoin in there. I feel like I could take a shotgun approach to crypto though. Not enough to hurt losing it all, but far better odds of getting something meaningful by spreading $100-1000 each into a few different cryptocurrencies versus playing the lottery.

 

It's all just a hindsight daydreaming exercise though, not too different from daydreaming about winning the lottery. If I had tossed even $10 in SHIB at the beginning of the year, never mind the fact that I didn't even know it existed then, I would be set for a couple of lifetimes if I could find a way to liquidate the gains as well as have the guts to hold the entire time.

 

I'm content with my plans to retire before 50, which is still way far ahead of most people. My problem, which I still have a few years to figure out, is how and whether I plan to change my investment strategy when I reach that magic number for my total assets. I got into stock investing in 2017 with a hyper-aggressive growth strategy because I was upset with my salary and not getting a raise at my job at the time, as well as not investing my extra money beyond the Roth IRA annual limit back when I opened one well over a decade ago. If I did, I could be retired right now.

 

I think back to when a coworker from my first job introduced me to opening a Roth IRA. He's about my age and told me then he planned to retire at 40. I didn't completely believe him then. Now I realize he easily could have pulled it off and I should reach out to him in the coming years to see if he did. I now make over 50% more per year with my current job than I did at the one I was unhappy with in 2017 and my aggressive "catch-up" strategy has worked so well that I don't want to change anything now, even though I know the last several years have been nothing like the broader history of the stock market.

You can say the same things about stocks. Plenty of stocks have gone up 6x or more in the last year. With hindsight you can look at any type of investment and think of any big movers as missed opportunities.